- 01/13/2022
- Posted by: Kenny Jay
- Category: country radio, Country ratings, Nielsen ratings, Radio Ratings
by Mike O’Malley
In 2017 we started a new annual post: “What formats have the most momentum going into the New Year?” We use Nielsen PPM data for the top15 leading formats in terms of share for 6+, 18-34, and 25-54.
By trending this data, we have an idea of “Format Momentum” going into the New Year. More importantly, we can see Country’s place relative to years past as well as to all formats challenging us for market share.
In the first of this two-part post, we’ll look at where Country is nationally, and how our format has trended over the past 5 years and beyond. In the second part on January 17th, we’ll consider the future.
Enjoy – and as always your feedback is welcome.
The Big Picture
Here’s the overview – the top 15 formats for 2021:
| 6+ | 18-34 | 25-54 | |
| News/Talk | 11.2% | 8.6% | 6.5% |
| Adult Contemp | 7.6% | 7.4% | 7.4% |
| Country/New C | 6.1% | 5.8% | 5.2% |
| Classic Hits | 5.6% | 4.4% | 5.2% |
| Pop CHR | 5.3% | 3.7% | 2.5% |
| Urban AC R&B | 5.1% | 3.9% | 4.6% |
| Classic Rock | 5.0% | 2.8% | 4.9% |
| Hot AC | 4.5% | 3.7% | 4.2% |
| All Sports | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.1% |
| Mexican Regional | 3.1% | 5.3% | 7.7% |
| Contemp Christian | 3.0% | 7.3% | 6.2% |
| Spanish Contemp | 2.9% | 3.7% | 3.5% |
| Urban/HipHop/R&B | 2.7% | 4.7% | 3.7% |
| Alternative | 2.5% | 4.7% | 3.7% |
| Adult Hits | 2.4% | 2.8% | 2.7% |
Not surprisingly, format shares across demos vary widely. The 6+ shares for News/talk for example are by far the largest although the format is number one both 6+ and 18-34.
Country shares are more evenly distributed although 18-34 again delivers higher shares than 25-54. The format ranks third 6+, 4th 18-34, and 5th (t) 25-54. Unfortunately, Country’s 6+ and 25-54 shares are the lowest in the PPM era, with 18-34 tying the previous low set in 2011.
Contemporary Christian, while 11th 6+, is 3rd 18-34 and 4th 25-54.
Trends by Demos
Here are the year-over-year and 5-year share trends for the top 15 formats by demo.
The greatest 6+ share increase from 2020 to 2021 belonged to All Sports. However, the 5-year comparison shows a decline 6+.
Contemporary Christian was a close second gaining half a share 6+ year-over-year and .2 shares compared to 5 years ago.
Country lost half a share year-to-date and a share and a half over 5 years.
| Persons 6+ AQH Share | YOY Dif | 5 Yr Dif |
| All Sports | 0.6% | -0.3% |
| Contemp Christian | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Urban AC | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| Adult Hits | 0.2% | -0.1% |
| Spanish Contemp | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| AC | 0.1% | -0.1% |
| Hot AC | 0.1% | -1.4% |
| Classic Hits | 0.1% | 0.3% |
| News/Talk | 0.0% | 1.3% |
| Mexican Regional | -0.1% | -0.5% |
| Alternative | -0.1% | -0.2% |
| Pop CHR | -0.2% | -2.3% |
| Urban Contemp | -0.3% | -1.1% |
| Classic Rock | -0.4% | -0.4% |
| Country/New C | -0.5% | -1.5% |
Among 18-34s, News/Talk gained a half share from 2020 and is up nearly a full share compared to 2017. Contemporary Christian increased by .4 shares YOY and a half share over 5 years.
Country lost .6 shares compared to 2020 and is off 1.11 shares compared to 2017.
| Persons 18-34 AQH Share | YOY Dif | 5 Yr Dif |
| News/Talk | 0.5% | 0.9% |
| Contemp Christian | 0.4% | 0.5% |
| AC | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| All Sports | 0.3% | -0.6% |
| Urban Adult Contemporary | R&B | 0.3% | 0.6% |
| Hot AC | 0.2% | -1.0% |
| Classic Hits | 0.2% | 0.9% |
| Pop CHR | 0.0% | -2.9% |
| Spanish Contemp | -0.1% | 0.5% |
| Alternative | -0.1% | -0.5% |
| Mexican Regional | -0.2% | -0.9% |
| Rhythmic CHR | -0.5% | -1.4% |
| Classic Rock | -0.5% | -0.2% |
| Country/New C | -0.6% | -1.1% |
| Urban Contemp/Hip-Hop/R&B | -0.9% | -2.1% |
25-54 YOY differences were a bit more modest. Hot AC, All sports ad Urban AC.R&B all gained 0.3 shares however Hot AC’s shares in 2021 are off 1.5 from 2017.
Pop CHR was off 0.2 shares YOY but saw the sharpest drop from five years ago (2.0 shares).
Country lost half a share year-over-year and is down 1.1 shares over the past 5.
| Persons 25-54 AQH Share | YOY Dif | 5 Yr Dif |
| Hot AC | 0.3% | -1.5% |
| All Sports | 0.3% | -0.6% |
| Urban AC/R&B | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| AC | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Classic Hits | 0.1% | 0.4% |
| Spanish Contemporary | 0.1% | 0.4% |
| Adult Hits | 0.1% | -0.3% |
| Alternative | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Mexican Regional | 0.1% | -0.3% |
| News/Talk (all) | -0.1% | 0.3% |
| Pop CHR | -0.2% | -2.0% |
| Rhythmic CHR | -0.2% | -0.5% |
| Classic Rock | -0.4% | -0.6% |
| Urban Contemp/Hip-Hop/R&B | -0.5% | -0.8% |
| Country/New Country | -0.5% | -1.1% |
Total Shares and Share Compression
Looking at the share difference between the top-ranked format and 10th ranked format in each age cell is also interesting and shows how tightly clustered the Top 10 25-54 shares are compared to 6+ and 18-34.
| 6+ | 18-34 | 25-54 | |
| Highest Share | 11.2% | 8.6% | 6.5% |
| Lowest Share | 2.4% | 2.8% | 2.7% |
| Spread | 8.8% | 5.8% | 3.8% |
Even removing the top format (News/Talk has significant lead 6+ and 18-34), and just examining the share spread between the second-highest lowest of the top formats, the differences are still apparent: 5.2 shares for 6+, 4.6 for 18-34, and 3.8 for 25-54.
The Music Format with the Most Momentum Going Into 2022
AC has delivered the greatest growth over the past five years among 6+ (+0.9), 18-34 (+1.8) and 25-54 (+1.0). Classic Hits is next up in 6+ (0.4) and 25-54 (0.6).
Year over year in 6+, AC and Classic Hits are each up 0.3 shares. Among 25-54s, AC is up 0.5 shares while Classic Hits is up 0.3.
AC and Classic Hits are the only two music formats to be up in both 6+ and 25-54. AC was also up in 18-34
Classic Hits was not among the Top 10 formats last year in 18-34. However, AC was up 0.5 shares. Country was the only other music format in the Top 10 to gain shares in this demo; Country was up 8.4 – 8.5.
Country’s Historical Trends
In the last part of this week’s post, here’s the widest angle view of the format’s rating by demo.
So far, this look back hasn’t exactly been heartwarming. But we don’t run our radio stations with our eyes constantly on the rearview mirror. We take what we know and move forward.
And that’s what we’ll jump into next time as we switch from the past and look to the future.
© 2022, Mike O’Malley, Mike O’Malley, LLC
Photo by Valerie Blanchett on Unsplash