- 01/07/2020
- Posted by: Mike O'Malley
- Category: country radio, country radio programming, Country ratings, radio, radio programming, Radio Ratings
Each year since 2016 I’ve posted a piece about formats with the most “share momentum” entering the New Year. That is, formats that are seeing consistent growth and formats that are not.
The data source is Nielsen’s Tops of 2019: Radio summary which reports leading formats (AQH share) in PPM markets from January to November. These shares are broken out for 6+, 18-34 and 25-54. By trending this data we can get a feel for “Format Momentum” going into the New Year.
The Big Picture
With this Intel as the backdrop, here are the 6+, 18-34, and 25-54 shares for the top 13 formats of 2019:
News Talk is the clear 6+ leader (blue bar) while Pop CHR easily wins 18-34 (red bar).
However it’s significantly tighter 25-54.
In fact, for the second consecutive year the top two 25-54 formats are separated by just one tenth of a share. This year AC bests runner-up Pop CHR 7.7 – 7.6 while last year Pop CHR was the 25-54 winner over AC 8.0 to 7.9.
Country is in this mix as well. It ranks 3rd 6+ and 25-54 and second 18-34.
| AQH Share | 6+ | 18-34 | 25-54 |
| N/T | 9.5 | 4.3 | 6.7 |
| AC | 8.1 | 7.6 | 7.7 |
| Country | 6.7 | 7.7 | 6.8 |
| Pop CHR | 6.6 | 10.1 | 7.6 |
| Classic Hits | 5.8 | 4.5 | 5.3 |
| Classic Rock | 5.1 | 4.5 | 4.5 |
| Hot AC | 5.0 | 5.9 | 5.5 |
Formats with the Most Momentum 6+: AC, Classic Hits, News/Talk
2019 marked the 7th consecutive year in which News/Talk was the 6+ share leader. But for the first time since 2014, the format lost rather than gained share. However with 2020 being an election year, it’s logical to expect an increase. For instance the format gained 0.7 shares in the last election year, 2016.
Meanwhile second place AC again increased its 6+ share as it has each year since 2014.
Country and Pop CHR both lost shares this year yet remained third and fourth 6+. Additionally this is the second consecutive year in which Country has placed ahead of Pop CHR.
| 6+ | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 |
| N/T | 9.3 | 8.8 | 8.9 | 9.6 | 9.9 | 10.0 | 9.5 |
| AC | 7.7 | 7.1 | 7.4 | 7.5 | 7.7 | 8.0 | 8.1 |
| Country | 7.8 | 8.2 | 7.9 | 7.4 | 7.6 | 7.3 | 6.7 |
| CHR | 8.2 | 8.3 | 8.2 | 8.1 | 7.6 | 6.9 | 6.5 |
| Classic Hits | 5.3 | 5.2 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.6 | 5.8 |
| Hot AC | 5.5 | 6.2 | 6.7 | 6.4 | 5.9 | 5.5 | 5.0 |
| Classic Rock | 4.3 | 4.7 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 5.4 | 4.9 | 5.1 |
Formats with the Most Momentum 18-34: AC but…
AC was off 0.1 shares year-over-year, but since 2014 it has added the most shares of any format (1.0). Meanwhile Classic Hits has grown 0.7 shares over the past three years to move from 11th to 8th 18-34.
Although Pop CHR retained its lead 18-34 (it has been number one in the demo since 2013), this year’s 10.1 share was its lowest.
Country remained number two as it has been since 2013, although it too registered its lowest share in seven years.
Meanwhile Classic Hits is up 0.7 shares while AC is up 0.4 shares over the past three years.
However it’s important to note that each of the top seven formats lost 18-34 shares in 2019. In fact, among the top ten formats, only Classic Hits (8th) and Classic Rock (9th) improved.
| 18-34 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 |
| CHR | 12.4 | 12.3 | 12.4 | 12.2 | 11.6 | 10.7 | 10.1 |
| Country | 9.1 | 9.8 | 9.1 | 8.6 | 8.4 | 8.5 | 7.7 |
| AC | 6.3 | 5.9 | 6.4 | 6.5 | 7.2 | 7.7 | 7.6 |
| Urban C | 5.3 | 5.8 | 6.5 | 6.6 | 6.8 | 6.4 | 6.1 |
| Hot AC | 6.1 | 7.1 | 7.6 | 7.3 | 6.8 | 6.4 | 5.9 |
| Alt | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 5.2 | 4.7 |
| Rhy CHR | 7.3 | 6.7 | 5.8 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 4.9 | 4.6 |
| Classic Hits | 3.8 | 4.3 | 4.5 | ||||
| Classic Rock | 3.6 | 3.9 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.5 |
Formats with the Most Momentum 25-54: AC, Classic Hits
For the first time since we’ve been tracking the data, CHR is not the top 25-54 format. That position is now held by AC. Despite dropping .2 shares from last year, AC scored its second highest share since 2013. And from a rank perspective, over the last four years AC has moved 3 (tie)-3–2-1. Simultaneously over this time the format has added 0.6 shares 25-54. These two achievements make a great case for momentum.
However Classic Hits can’t be over-looked. The format’s share has increased each of the last 4 years up 0.8 shares between 2015 and 2019. Additionally, Classic Hits was ranked 10th in 2013 and 6th this year.
Meanwhile, Country held its third place rank despite being off slightly.
Over the past three years, Classic Hits is up 0.5 shares while AC gains 0.3 shares.
As in 18-34, all of the top five stations are down in shares. In fact, 11 of the top 13 stations lost shares with only Classic Hits (+0.2) and Urban Contemporary (0.1) showing gains.
| 25-54 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 |
| AC | 7.5 | 6.9 | 7.2 | 7.1 | 7.4 | 7.9 | 7.7 |
| CHR | 8.7 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 8.8 | 8.5 | 8.0 | 7.6 |
| Country | 7.5 | 8.0 | 7.8 | 7.3 | 7.3 | 7.0 | 6.8 |
| NT | 6.8 | 6.2 | 6.2 | 6.9 | 7.4 | 7.0 | 6.7 |
| Hot AC | 6.1 | 6.8 | 7.2 | 7.0 | 6.7 | 6.1 | 5.5 |
| Classic Hits | 4.6 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.7 | 4.8 | 5.1 | 5.3 |
| Classic Rock | 4.7 | 5.3 | 5.7 | 5.4 | 5.5 | 4.8 | 5.0 |
Country
Country being off 0.2 shares this year 25-54 gives the format the same performance as 25-54 leader AC. Additionally, with so many other formats losing shares 25-54 between 2018 and 2019, Country didn’t perform atypically from most other formats. Indeed, five formats lost more 25-54 shares than did Country.
Still, 18-34 which was up a tick last year, takes a big hit in 2019 (-0.8) while 6+ is off 0.6. Of course oft-shared CHR and Hot AC slipped too.
Turning the Tide
But there’s good news. Country is poised for a turn-around.
As we posted in our Year End Music Review, A&O&B’s Total Positive (higher is better) and Total Like A Lot (lower is better) Scores for 2019’s for the Top 1/3 testing currents continue to improve.
Meanwhile Canada’s Total Positive Scores for Top 1/3 Testers for 2019 reached a 5-year high as well.
Country: The Best of the Best Got Better
Strong testing currents that remain excellent testers as recurrents (think “Whiskey Glasses” and “Beautiful Crazy” for example), are creating a growing “carry-the-quarter-hour” base of music.
There’s a downside however. We still have declining overall Total Positive Scores which are dragging down the overall average. So for Country, this is a reminder that how you manage your music matters (a whole lot in fact).
The last wave of extremely strong testing Country music roughly spanned 2009-2012. Meanwhile Nielsen’s highest Country shares were in 2014. Thus a year or so of strong music is a base for growth rather than an instant “fix.”
So while the ratings increase has yet to happen, there are certainly signs that 2019 has played a big role in setting us up for higher shares ahead.
So it’s not too soon to feel that country is poised for a jump.
Related:
A&O&B Year End Music Rewind: 2019 Ends with Cautious Optimism
Formats with the Most Momentum Entering 2019
Formats with the Most Momentum Entering 2018
Photo by Lerone Pieters on Unsplash
© Mike O’Malley, 2020