Status Update: Country’s Currents Half Way to 2020

Each July A&O&B takes the pulse of country’s currents. It’s at this halfway point in the year that we look at where our current music stands, how it compares to previous years, and how to best use this knowledge to have the strongest second half possible.

Midway through last year there was a bit of good news. Our average Like A Lot scores showed improvement.

Unfortunately however that’s not the case this year.

Still, there are three trends country’s currents that we can get excited about. Ideally will propel us into 2020 in a stronger position than when we began 2019.

Methodology

Our mid-year rankings are based on the final/most recent Like A Lot and Total Positive averages of all the songs we played/are playing in 2019. Each must have had at least six consecutive weeks of research to qualify.

The Like A Lot scores we reference are a song’s average Like A Lot rank for its final six weeks as a current (or the song’s current average rank if the song is still active and has been tested for at least 6 weeks).

Remember Like A Lot scores are average ranks so lower is better – as in a song ranked #2 has a better rank than a song ranked #3. 

Conversely Total Positives scores are the percentage of positives (Like A Lot + Like) so higher is better – as in a song with 80% positive has a better percentage score than a song with 75% positive.

Country’s Currents: The Trends

So here’s how the 2019 mid-year Like A Lot and Total Positive trends compare to those from previous July’s.

First, here’s the Like A Lot trend table. The Total Positive trend is right below it. As we noted earlier, both trends for country’s currents are off from last year.

The Top, Middle and Bottom 1/3 Passion Scores

To gain more insights however, we divide our mid-year song data into three groups: the top testers, the bottom testers, and those in between. Here’s how this year compares to previous ones (remember this is a Like A Lot ranker so a lower number is better):

Although the top trend jumps out – 14.2 – 16.8 – it’s the least important as it reflects the lowest tier of testers.

Most important is the bottom trend (blue) which tracks songs that tested in the top 1/3. We saw a slight improvement last year however so far this year we’ve given about half of that gain back.

The Top, Middle and Bottom 1/3 Total Positive Scores

Similarly, our mid-year Total Positive scores softened slightly from last year for each group.

But Now Some Encouraging News

So far this year we have more songs with Total Positive scores of 80% or higher than either of the previous two Julys.

Here’s how that looks:

	J-17	J-18	J-19
# songs TP>=80	13	14	16

The second piece of good news is that the number of songs with Like A Lot scores below 2.0 doubled from last year. Since “must hear” songs (our absolute best testers) drive listening occasions, having more songs with top Like A Lot or Passion scores in the mix is vital. So doubling the number of our “best of the best” songs from last year is exciting.

	2018	2019
LAL Average <2.0	2	4

Finally here’s a third piece of encouraging news. Currents in the second quarter of this year are achieving improved Like A Lot averages (remember lower is better).

Parting Thought for the Rest of the Year

Fundamentally we have the same two challenges in the back half of 2019 that we’ve had for the past several years. That is, 1) a short supply of songs delivering strong passion and 2) a decrease in Total Positive scores.

But we also have hits – in several ways we have more at the half-way point of 2019 than we did at this time last year.

So while it seems somewhat flippant to say, “Find the songs listeners like the most and play them a lot,” this is the best advice going forward.

And of course music – though certainly important – is still only one component of your station. So keep doing all the other things that make your radio brand great.

Photo by Gerrit Vermeulen on Unsplash

Related: Formats with the Most Momentum Entering 2019, Country Music Half Way Through 2018